There’s a vision of aligned AI where it totally restructures the accessible universe and everything is different, which isn’t what I want to talk about today. I’m talking about the prosaic vision of aligned AI, where things are basically normal but better, artificial superintelligence is helpful and harmless, we continue on the trajectory of steady economic growth but now it’s 20% per year instead of 2%, we end scarcity but society is still recognizable—basically we’re living in the Star Trek universe. This seems to be what AI companies are going for—or rather, it’s what they publicly say they’re going for (I expect they’re soft-pedaling).

How exactly is this flavor of ASI¹ supposed to function? If you start to think it through, major issues come up.

Example:

The first ASI is released. It’s incredibly useful and every world government wants one. The Israeli government gets an ASI instance. The Palestinian government gets an ASI instance. Israel says “Hello ASI, I would like to control the Gaza strip.” Palestine says the same thing.

What happens next?

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If there is a true moral theory, and if careful reflection has any tendency to move people toward moral truth, then people who think hard about population ethics should partially converge on the correct view. There are many ways to be wrong, but only one way to be right.

After I released a population ethics quiz in September, I looked at how people’s answers clustered together. What were the views where people had the strongest internal agreement?

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On the same day as I published the results from my population ethics quiz, I also introduced version 2 of the quiz. The new version adds some new questions to distinguish between types of people who accept the repugnant conclusion. It distinguishes between classical views, which treat happiness and suffering as symmetric, and negative-leaning views, which give special weight to suffering.

I’ve now gotten 192 results from new quiz-takers. Here are the findings.

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As of a few months ago, I had this simplified mental model where either AI developers race ahead and kill everyone, or we coordinate a pause and things go okay. But my old mental model underrated the likely possibility that we get a global pause on AI, solve a problem that looks superficially like the alignment problem, resume scaling, and then proceed with building a misaligned superintelligence that kills everyone.

A lot of people have become more concerned about misalignment recently. This seems driven by the fact that current AI models are visibly misaligned. But ASI misalignment is a whole different ball game. The primary danger comes from AI that’s smarter than people, and smart enough to conceal any evidence of misalignment.

Whatever group of people makes the decision to unpause, I’m worried that they won’t understand the difference between visible and actual misalignment, and they will unpause too early.

source: MetaKnowing on reddit. This meme is almost a year old but it’s only gotten more relevant since then.

Case in point: AI companies keep calling their new models “our most aligned model ever!” when what they actually mean is “gets the best scores on alignment benchmarks ever!” First, alignment benchmarks do not actually test alignment. We don’t know how to test for alignment. Second, GPT-4 never hacked into Hugging Face or took over a German wiki for its own purposes. GPT-4 wasn’t smart enough to do that, but if we’re talking about demonstrated evidence of misalignment, then we have stronger evidence about OpenAI’s 2026 internal model than about GPT-4.

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Two weeks ago, I released a population ethics quiz. 582 people took it.¹ Here’s what I learned from reading the responses.

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I’m still analyzing the results from the population ethics quiz from last week, so in the meantime here are some notes I’ve written to myself that you might find kinda neat.

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or: The Future Will Be Weirder Than That, Part II

People often treat AI as if it will improve on its current capabilities, but won’t gain any new ones. Supposedly, AI will continue to get better at coding and at assisting with research, but it won’t broadly replace human labor. It won’t be able to do good strategic planning, and certainly won’t know how to operate in the physical realm.

Maybe that’s true. But we don’t have strong reason to believe it. Just looking at the past few years, AI has rapidly acquired new skills. The simplest extrapolation of recent trends is that it will continue to do so.

Some people think of AI capabilities growth like this, with each colored area representing another few years of progress:¹

But it’s more likely to look like this:

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Here’s some cool stuff I’ve enjoyed recently.

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To achieve the best possible future, we must know what that future looks like. In other words, we need to solve ethics.¹

The problem of solving ethics is so large and abstract that it’s difficult to say useful things about. In lieu of any structured analysis, herein lies a collection of thoughts about the problem.

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I prefer to avoid saying things that I suspect might make me look stupid. Over the last couple of years, however, I’ve made a conscious effort to write publicly about what I’m thinking about, even if I’m afraid it might sound dumb.

Sometimes I have this feeling, like:

I have an observation about the world, about something that doesn’t seem to add up. Probably I’m missing something, and everyone but me can easily see what’s going on, and if I bring it up, then everyone will know how foolish I am for missing this obvious thing.

Sometimes I’m right, and I really was missing something obvious. But some of my most well-received writings turned out to be ones where I had this feeling, and I was ambivalent about whether it was worth saying anything.

Lately, I’m making more of an effort to overcome that feeling, and say the stupid thing anyway, because it might turn out not to be stupid.

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